Europe at the Crossroads — The Future of the EU

Last time, we saw the shock that was Brexit. One country left the circle of integration, and the EU shrank for the first time. Amid the surge of populism, the ideal of integration and the voices of people who could not be fully convinced of it remained, holding a tension that could not easily be dissolved.

Before that wavering had cooled, the situation everyone had feared became real. In 2022, right beside Europe, a real war began. On this continent, which was supposed to have been born so as never to go to war again, the experiment of integration met its heaviest trial. In this final chapter of the series, I want to survey that event, and the future of the EU that comes into view from it, without rushing toward an answer.

The Day War Came Next Door — Unity and Sanctions

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. A war said to be among the largest in Europe since the Second World War broke out right before the eyes of the EU.

Many feared that the EU would splinter in the face of this crisis. Countries that depended on Russia for energy, countries geographically close, countries far away — each had different interests. Yet when the lid was lifted, the EU showed more unity than expected. The member states fell into step and piled on sanctions against Russia, and continued their support for Ukraine. They took in refugees and extended a humanitarian hand. Even in the field of defence, where they had long kept their distance, moves toward coordination began to be seen.

The move to draw a clear line against Russia redrew the very map of security itself. Finland and Sweden, which had long maintained neutrality, applied to join the military alliance NATO in response to this war. Finland joined in 2023, and Sweden, it is reported, followed thereafter. The very premises of European security shifted greatly in a short span of time.

Between ideals and pain, the EU nonetheless did not halt its steps. It was not a perfect accord, but a unity carried along with hesitation and differences in temperature. Yet the very fact that it tried to keep in step amid a crisis could be said to tell the story of how far this community had come.

The Dilemma of Enlargement and Deepening — The Question of Ukraine

In the midst of the war, the EU made a symbolic decision. In June 2022, it approved granting Ukraine and Moldova the status of candidate countries. It was a strong message, showing a country under attack the intent that ‘you are a member of Europe.’

Yet this decision drew out into the open, once more, an old dilemma the EU had long carried. It is the dilemma of ‘enlargement’ and ‘deepening.’

Enlargement means increasing the number of partner countries. Deepening means strengthening the bonds among member states and increasing the number of common decisions. These two often pull against each other. The more the number of countries increases, the harder it becomes to bring opinions together. Especially in moments where unanimity is required for important decisions, the opposition of a single country can even bring the whole to a halt. That is precisely why they wish to deepen unity, so as to make it easier to keep in step. Yet deepen it too much, and the friction with the sovereignty each country holds dear grows stronger — what Brexit showed was the very destination of that friction.

Were the EU to welcome a large country like Ukraine in the future, this dilemma would grow all the heavier. While widening its circle of partners, how is the EU at the same time to remake its mechanism of decision-making? Between the ideal of enlargement and the reality of running things, the answer is still right in the midst of being sought.

Where Will the Experiment in Peace Go Next — In Place of a Conclusion

In this series, we have traced a long road. The dream of ‘never going to war again,’ which sprouted in the ruins of two great wars. A journey that began from the idea of managing coal and steel in common, made markets one, made the currency one, and opened its doors to the east. Along the way there was the north-south conflict of the euro crisis, there was the contraction that was Brexit, and there was war that came next door once again.

There are people who see the EU as an unfinished, grand success. Countries that had long kept fighting cast aside war as a means and came to decide matters around a table. On that one point alone, it is an achievement rare in human history. On the other hand, there are also people who see the EU as a distant, cold bureaucracy weak in democratic legitimacy. Important things are decided in places out of reach, far removed from the feel of daily life. Both views probably grasp one side of this community correctly. Light and shadow were inseparably bound together from the very start.

The surge of populism still shakes the EU in places to this day, and the steps of the member states are often out of kilter. Even so, when faced with the crisis of war, this community chose not to break, but to draw close to one another. A unity that was not a perfect accord, but one that carried pain. How heavy, and how endless an undertaking it is to keep on protecting peace as a matter of course — the journey of the EU seems to speak of this quietly.

Where will the experiment of integration head from here? Will it widen further, bind itself more deeply, or sway once more under another trial? We, now, do not yet hold that answer. Yet the very fact that a single dream, which began from the ruins, has continued this far, crossing beyond war, should become a sure clue for thinking about the future.

Thank you for accompanying this story of European integration for so long. History does not hand us answers, but it bestows questions upon us. With the question you have received in your heart, I hope we can look together at the Europe — and the world — to come.

【A History of the EU: European Integration Beyond War — End】